What to do when you are listening to different news groups telling you yes, no, and maybe. Try to listen to the voices that give you hope, but do not believe them until you can prove to yourself that event did come true. Do not beat yourself up when you find out you were wrong. Learn from the mistake, pick up the pieces, and build a new belief system: repeat.
Try to learn to not lie to yourself, other people will do that for you. Try and also remember that when people are telling you the truth, they may also be telling you the truth for a reason. Ask them why, and when they answer, try and figure out if they are lying to you or themselves. “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”
Think of life as a desert and remember “in the desert, no man meets a friend”. Try and remember on that long Silk Road to enjoy the caravanserai when you find them.